Posted by greylock on May 15, 2010, 12:04 am
wrote:
>tripletask@gmail..com wrote:
>> California More Likely to Default than Iceland or Iraq
>>
>> The Federal Reserve isn't the only one
>> who owns credit default swaps
>> betting that California will default.
>>
>> As Ed Harrison points out,
>> credit default traders have now ranked California
>> in the top 10 governments likely to default,
>> with a 20% default probability:
>>
>> Webmaster's Commentary:
>>
>> Illegal Immigration Costs California Over Ten Billion Annually
>>
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/california-is-more-likely-to-default.html
>>
>> Whites now minority. In spite of Silicon Valley the prognosis is
>> terminal.
>Did you bother to read what you posted? From that same article:
> But there are significant differences that make California a safer
>bet for U.S. investors--the key being that California must balance its
>budget, can't declare municipal bankruptcy and would likely receive
>support from the federal government as a last resort.
> ***
> "California is a deficit problem, Greece is a debt problem," said
>Matt Fabian, senior municipal analyst at Municipal?Market?Advisors.
>"Greece needs current market access in order not to default on their
>debt. In California, all the debt is fully funded and debt service is
>well below 10% of the state's expenses."
>Similarly, Michael Connor argues today that California is very different
>from countries like Greece:
> California is so not Greece.
> That's the broadly held view in the $2.8 trillion U.S. municipal
>bond market ....
> "It's wacky," said municipal debt analyst Jeffrey Cleveland at
>Payden & Rygel. "Just look at the ratio of debt to state gross domestic
>product. It's 10 percent for California and somewhere between 104
>percent and 150 percent for Greece."
>And... nowhere does it mention either the cost of illegal immigrants to
>the state, or the SS and other taxes they pay without collecting benefits.
>BTW, there has been a net flux of illegals out of the country. Most of
>that is due to enforcement, remember the Mexican recession is much worse
>than here. Even in Arizona, there are 90,000 fewer than last year.
>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042903646.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
>By Edward Schumacher-Matos
>Friday, April 30, 2010
>Forget the hyperventilated furor over the new Arizona immigration law
>and consider this overlooked fact: The number of illegal immigrants
>getting into the country has slowed to a relative trickle.
>And more have left than are coming in. The number of unauthorized
>immigrants in the country has gone from an estimated high of 12.5
>million in 2007 to 10.8 million in this year's first quarter and is
>still dropping, according to experts in the Census Bureau, the
>Department of Homeland Security and some think tanks.
>The illegal immigration crisis, in other words, is easing -- and is not
>really a crisis, except in the eyes of activists, political opportunists
>and breathless media.
>Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the main reason for the decline in
>unauthorized immigration is probably not the temporary phenomenon of the
>recession. If this were so, demand for work or residence visas would be
>down, and it is not. And Mexico, the source of nearly six out of every
>10 undocumented immigrants, is suffering an even worse recession than
>the United States.
>No, a major -- if not the main -- reason for the drop is that
>enforcement is working, something that many pro-immigration activists
>hate to admit and that restrictionists refuse to recognize.
>...
>But I think you just want to stir some emotions on illegals. Rage and
>emotions run high in the Party of the Terminally Upset. It's a bitter
>tea that you brew.
> Jeff
>>
>> cole
>>
The only cite you provide is to the Washington Post - which is frankly
a questionable source.
And part of the story above that you do not quote says:
"The anger in Arizona and elsewhere may be partly understandable, but
someone among our leaders has to tell people that their feelings don't
fit the facts and to -- yes -- trust the government."
I live in a place where it is glaringly obvious that the Federal
Government is not doing a f**cking thing - and have in fact pulled the
Border Patrol back to the interior of the state and off of the border.
So try providing a believable quotation from someone who is not an
idiot and/or a liar.
Posted by Jeff Thies on May 15, 2010, 12:16 am
greylock wrote:
> wrote:
>
>> tripletask@gmail..com wrote:
>>> California More Likely to Default than Iceland or Iraq
>>>
>>> The Federal Reserve isn't the only one
>>> who owns credit default swaps
>>> betting that California will default.
>>>
>>> As Ed Harrison points out,
>>> credit default traders have now ranked California
>>> in the top 10 governments likely to default,
>>> with a 20% default probability:
>>>
>>> Webmaster's Commentary:
>>>
>>> Illegal Immigration Costs California Over Ten Billion Annually
>>>
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/california-is-more-likely-to-default.html
>>>
>>> Whites now minority. In spite of Silicon Valley the prognosis is
>>> terminal.
>>
>> Did you bother to read what you posted? From that same article:
>>
>> But there are significant differences that make California a safer
>> bet for U.S. investors--the key being that California must balance its
>> budget, can't declare municipal bankruptcy and would likely receive
>> support from the federal government as a last resort.
>>
>> ***
>>
>> "California is a deficit problem, Greece is a debt problem," said
>> Matt Fabian, senior municipal analyst at Municipal?Market?Advisors.
>> "Greece needs current market access in order not to default on their
>> debt. In California, all the debt is fully funded and debt service is
>> well below 10% of the state's expenses."
>>
>> Similarly, Michael Connor argues today that California is very different
>>from countries like Greece:
>> California is so not Greece.
>>
>> That's the broadly held view in the $2.8 trillion U.S. municipal
>> bond market ....
>>
>> "It's wacky," said municipal debt analyst Jeffrey Cleveland at
>> Payden & Rygel. "Just look at the ratio of debt to state gross domestic
>> product. It's 10 percent for California and somewhere between 104
>> percent and 150 percent for Greece."
>>
>>
>> And... nowhere does it mention either the cost of illegal immigrants to
>> the state, or the SS and other taxes they pay without collecting benefits.
>>
>> BTW, there has been a net flux of illegals out of the country. Most of
>> that is due to enforcement, remember the Mexican recession is much worse
>> than here. Even in Arizona, there are 90,000 fewer than last year.
>>
>>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042903646.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
>>
>> By Edward Schumacher-Matos
>> Friday, April 30, 2010
>>
>> Forget the hyperventilated furor over the new Arizona immigration law
>> and consider this overlooked fact: The number of illegal immigrants
>> getting into the country has slowed to a relative trickle.
>>
>> And more have left than are coming in. The number of unauthorized
>> immigrants in the country has gone from an estimated high of 12.5
>> million in 2007 to 10.8 million in this year's first quarter and is
>> still dropping, according to experts in the Census Bureau, the
>> Department of Homeland Security and some think tanks.
>>
>> The illegal immigration crisis, in other words, is easing -- and is not
>> really a crisis, except in the eyes of activists, political opportunists
>> and breathless media.
>>
>> Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the main reason for the decline in
>> unauthorized immigration is probably not the temporary phenomenon of the
>> recession. If this were so, demand for work or residence visas would be
>> down, and it is not. And Mexico, the source of nearly six out of every
>> 10 undocumented immigrants, is suffering an even worse recession than
>> the United States.
>>
>> No, a major -- if not the main -- reason for the drop is that
>> enforcement is working, something that many pro-immigration activists
>> hate to admit and that restrictionists refuse to recognize.
>> ...
>>
>>
>> But I think you just want to stir some emotions on illegals. Rage and
>> emotions run high in the Party of the Terminally Upset. It's a bitter
>> tea that you brew.
>>
>> Jeff
>>> cole
>>>
> The only cite you provide is to the Washington Post - which is frankly
> a questionable source.
>
As opposed to some "source" that you happen to agree with?
> And part of the story above that you do not quote says:
>
> "The anger in Arizona and elsewhere may be partly understandable, but
> someone among our leaders has to tell people that their feelings don't
> fit the facts and to -- yes -- trust the government."
>
> I live in a place where it is glaringly obvious that the Federal
> Government is not doing a f**cking thing - and have in fact pulled the
> Border Patrol back to the interior of the state and off of the border.
>
> So try providing a believable quotation from someone who is not an
> idiot and/or a liar.
And, you've got what? Besides anger?
Jeff
XML site map
>> California More Likely to Default than Iceland or Iraq
>>
>> The Federal Reserve isn't the only one
>> who owns credit default swaps
>> betting that California will default.
>>
>> As Ed Harrison points out,
>> credit default traders have now ranked California
>> in the top 10 governments likely to default,
>> with a 20% default probability:
>>
>> Webmaster's Commentary:
>>
>> Illegal Immigration Costs California Over Ten Billion Annually
>>